Highland Adapts launch the Highland Climate Change Risk and Opportunities Assesment
Stark climate change report from Highland stakeholders finds risk of flood, coastal erosion & drought to region is immediate - with urgent coordinated action required
Highlights:
Report finds Highland region already at high risk of flooding, subsidence, storms & extreme heat
Heightened incidence & intensity of wildfire across the region expected & increased risk of carbon release
Elevated flood risk for Beauly, Golspie, Nairn, Wick & Fort William and rivers Ness, Spey & Tay
Report concludes that risks are both urgent and require coordinated action from all stakeholders
Highland Adapts, a partnership established to facilitate transformational action for a prosperous, climateready Highland region, has published a groundbreaking report outlining the urgent risks - and limited opportunities - for the region resulting from climate change. Its partially ScotGov-funded Highland Climate Change Risk & Opportunity Assessment (HCCROA) explores the implications of climate change on the region into the 2050s and 2080s - warning that threats to Highland life are real, interconnected, and accelerating. Some of the findings in the report supported by Joseph Perry Consulting are sobering, concluding that it is no longer a question of should action be taken to adapt to and tackle the unprecedented climate-related challenges facing the Highlands - but whether stakeholders are prepared to collaborate to act at the scale and pace required.
Highlands at High Risk
Found already to be at risk from the effects of climate change - including more widespread flooding, subsidence, coastal erosion, storms and extreme heat - are the region’s People, Buildings, Public & Household Finances, Economy, Mental Health & Wellbeing, Health & Social Care, Facilities & Outdoor Spaces, Physical Business Assets & Supply Chains, Households & Businesses, Transport, Coastal & Freshwater Ecosystems, Fisheries & Aquaculture, Fuel Supply, and Power Generation & Transmission. Joining them as being at high risk within 25 years is Highland Cultural Heritage, Population & Viability of Settlements, Food, Water Supply & Wastewater Systems, Natural Carbon Stores, and Terrestrial, Marine & Soil Ecosystems.
Commenting on the findings, Keith Masson, Highland Adapts Chair and Head of Net Zero Transition at Highlands & Islands Enterprise (HIE), said:
“The changing climate is no longer a distant or abstract risk for the Highlands. It is already re-shaping our economy, our infrastructure, our natural environment and, most importantly, the health and wellbeing of our communities. The evidence set out in the HCCROA is unequivocal: the impacts are material, inter-related and gathering pace and if urgent, meaningful coordinated action is not taken, the consequences are likely to be severe.”
Rising Temperature Risks
The 400-page evidence- and place-based assessment doesn’t pull any punches, laying bare the - many now inevitable - risks and impacts to the region from warmer and more extreme weather. It finds that drought and wildfires will become more frequent, with rising temperatures expected to reduce crop yields and productivity for the key whisky and aquaculture sectors. Warmer conditions will favour the spread of pests and diseases and increase tick abundance while livestock breeding could be affected. Dryer springs and summers will lead to stored carbon release, with a 3-4°C mean annual air temperature rise by the 2080s threatening Atlantic salmon and other species. By 2050, the report finds, the Highlands’ dwellings, care homes and workplaces will experience overheating, with risks to mental health, well-being - and indeed, life - intensifying by the 2080s as more frequent extreme weather events lead to disruption to housing, transport, and health services.
Wet Weather Effects
The report finds that wetter winters and more powerful storms will elevate flood risk to Highland buildings by almost 80% by 2050, with a 25% rise in rainfall predicted by the 2080s. Projected sea level rises of between 21-39 cm will see escalation of erosion and flood risk along soft, low-lying shores. More frequent flooding will place strain on ageing drainage systems in towns such as Wick, Dingwall and Inverness - resulting in recurrent dampness, mould growth, structural instability and landslides - while extreme weather will place sustained pressure on critical energy infrastructure, roads, railways, airports, ferry terminals and ports. Wetter winters are likely to exacerbate waterlogging in lowland agricultural soils, diminishing carbon sequestration. The report adds that, by the 2050s and 2080s, extreme weather will make outdoor events more difficult to plan and insure, while loss of traditional land cover, coastal retreat and damage to sites of scientific importance could erode the region’s reputation for outstanding natural beauty.
Limited Opportunities
Amidst the call to mitigate - and adapt for - the effects of climate change, are reported a handful of limited opportunities for Highland communities into the 2080s. There’s potential for reduced household costs, benefits for physical wellbeing, potential repopulation of the region, crop diversification, and opportunities for species and ecosystems.
But Masson cautions:
“It’s important to be clear that opportunities arising directly from climate change are limited and uneven. They do not offset the scale of the risks we face, particularly to long-lived assets and critical systems. Our primary task is therefore not to chase marginal gains, but to reduce vulnerability, build resilience and avoid locking in future harm through today’s decisions.”
Case Studies Highlight Disruptive Effects
Included in the report are real world case studies from Highland businesses and communities, whose way of life is increasingly disrupted by the effects of a warming climate, exploring how they are adapting.
Abacus Mountain Guides, a Fort William-based mountaineering business, for whom winter guiding has historically formed the core of its work, has found climate change is already disrupting this model, with recent poor winters causing financial losses and reduced customer confidence in winter activities in the Highlands. Co-Founder, Mike Prescod, comments:
“Winters have always been unpredictable, but the steady decline is noticeable. Last winter was a disaster for our finances. We saw a 50% reduction in turnover.”
Yet opportunities remain, with Abacus diversifying into summer activities and less climate-sensitive specialisms.
Flow Country, the world’s largest and most ecologically intact blanket bog system, forms a cornerstone of Scotland’s natural heritage and climate resilience but this globally significant landscape faces growing pressure from climate change. Hotter, drier summers, rising wildfire risk, and heavier winter rainfall are undermining the delicate hydrology that sustains peat formation. And, because the Flow Country’s UNESCO World Heritage status relies on the extent and quality of its blanket bog habitat, its deterioration poses serious ecological, cultural, and economic risks.
Foulis Estate, an arable farming, forestry, renewable energy, and tourism business, has been managed by the Munro family for 675 years. They note that longer growing seasons have benefited cereal production in some years, while viewing the increasing frequency of one-off severe weather events as their greatest challenge. Heavy rainfall and strong winds have damaged crops and soils, while wetter winters are straining ageing drainage systems. Forestry operations face heightened risks from storms and disease, and coastal assets remain vulnerable to sea-level rise.
Hector Munro comments:
“Spring sowing now happens later, while harvests are delayed by longer-season crop varieties and sudden autumns. Winters are warmer, storms more frequent, and pests, diseases, and wildlife patterns have all noticeably shifted.”
Golspie, a Sutherland village lying on a narrow coastal plain of glacial sands and dunes offering limited protection from the sea, faces growing exposure to flooding, erosion, and surface-water inundation as sea levels rise and rainfall intensifies. Past storms have damaged homes, sea defences, and recreation areas, and erosion continues.
Henrietta Marriott, Chair of Golspie Flood Action group comments:
“We’ve lost metres of shoreline. The original golf clubhouse is now 30 metres out to sea, and the caravan park is within inches of being taken by the sea. If the worst case scenario comes to pass…in 100 years time, this village could have to move.”
Co-ordinated Regional Action Called For
The clear message of the HCCROA is that climate risk in the Highlands is systemic and complex. Decisions taken in one place, by one organisation, increasingly have consequences elsewhere, making acting in isolation no longer just inefficient, but a potential liability.
The report does not allocate blame or claim to be a silver bullet but provides a shared evidence base, a common language for risk, and shows where climate impacts are already being felt, where they will worsen, and where coordinated action can make a real difference. Crucially, it highlights that the majority of urgent climate risks are priorities for regional collaboration, with a call for leaders to align decisions, invest and deliver across organisations and sectors.
Commenting on the value of Highland Adapts’ report - which brings original data and existing research from ScotGov, NatureScot, Highland Council, and DynamicCoast together for the first time -
Victoria Erasmus, Sustainability Director (Glen Mhor Hotel, Uile-Bheist Distillery/Brewery), UHI Chair, and Co-Chair, Visit Inverness Loch Ness, said:
“What stands out most for me is how this report translates complex climate science into place- and evidencebased, practical insight. The way it brings together the different sections into a coherent Highland narrative is incredibly powerful. It feels both complete and accessible, and I can see it becoming a foundational piece of work for organisations across the region.”
Options for regional collaboration for each of the 50 risks and opportunities in the assessment are identified in the report, including calls to:
Address risks across interconnected systems to limit cascading failures & protect lifeline connectivity
Coordinate land & water management across boundaries & land-uses
Develop skills & capacity where they are limited
Support economic resilience, livelihoods & household security
Share evidence, assumptions & limitations transparently
Enable communities & households to navigate disruption & long-term change
“The opportunity and requirement to act together, with clarity and purpose, has never been greater,” concludes Masson. “Adaptation is everyone’s responsibility, and no single organisation can deliver it alone, but if we continue to respond to climate risk through fragmented, short-term or single-sector approaches we will lock in higher costs, greater disruption and poorer outcomes for future generations.
“Our partners are calling for collective action – from the public sector, businesses, landowners, utilities, third sector and communities - bringing traditional Highland strengths of collaboration, innovation and place-based thinking to bear in a more strategic, joined-up way. If we do so we can make better decisions now that protect what we value, supporting a resilient regional economy and leaving a fairer legacy for those who come after us.